Baseline setup
Enter the opening metrics that anchor every forecast.
Forecast anchor
Baseline metrics
These opening values feed the first forecast month. ARPU and ARR are derived from customers and MRR.
Need the complete funnel configuration too?
Acquisition planning
Budget breakdown by subchannel
Monthly allocated spend from each enabled paid subchannel’s go-live month onward.
Advanced budget controls
| Month | Total |
|---|---|
| 2026-10 | $0 |
| 2026-11 | $0 |
| 2026-12 | $0 |
| 2027-01 | $0 |
| 2027-02 | $0 |
| 2027-03 | $0 |
| 2027-04 | $0 |
| 2027-05 | $0 |
| 2027-06 | $0 |
| 2027-07 | $0 |
| 2027-08 | $0 |
| 2027-09 | $0 |
Marquee metrics
Churn value diagnostic
Logo churn controls customer loss; revenue churn controls MRR loss. Their relationship reveals the implied value of customers who leave.
Channel assumptions
Each channel adds traffic once in its go-live month; all active traffic then compounds at the global Traffic growth rate
Default funnel assumptions
Set every subchannel at once
Changes here immediately update all direct response, demand generation, owned, partner, and custom channels. New channels inherit these defaults too. You can still override an individual channel afterward.
How to use this model
Start with the Baseline scenario, configure channel launches, then change one assumption at a time. The forecast runs month by month from the opening values configured on the Baseline page.
Baseline traffic
Each month begins with the previous month’s baseline visitors multiplied by 1 + Traffic growth.
next visitors = prior visitors × (1 + growth)Channel launches
A channel adds traffic once in its Live month. Month 0 disables it. After launch, its traffic compounds at the global Traffic growth rate.
channel traffic = launch traffic × (1 + growth)Paid traffic
Direct response uses allocated spend and CPC. Demand generation uses allocated spend, CPM, and CTR.
DR = spend ÷ CPC
Demand = spend ÷ CPM × 1,000 × CTRFunnel
Baseline traffic uses the main conversion assumptions. A channel uses its own expanded signup and purchase assumptions.
eligible upgrades = signups shifted by days to upgrade × purchase %Customer bridge
New customers are added while voluntary and delinquent logo churn remove customers from the opening balance.
ending customers = opening + new − churnedRevenue bridge
New and expansion MRR are added; downgrade and revenue churn MRR are removed.
ending MRR = opening + new + expansion − downgrade − churnUnit economics
Predicted LTV uses the customer-weighted monthly value of all acquisition sources, gross margin, and revenue churn. Blended CAC combines paid launch spend, one month of Sales & Marketing Overhead, and churn-adjusted affiliate commissions, divided by customers attributed to those channels.
LTV = (total new MRR ÷ new customers) × margin ÷ revenue churn
CAC = (paid spend + S&M overhead + affiliate commissions) ÷ acquired customersRead the result
Payback shows months needed to recover blended CAC from monthly contribution ARPU. Expected LTV:CAC compares predicted LTV with blended CAC.
payback = CAC ÷ (weighted acquisition ARPU × margin)
LTV:CAC = predicted LTV ÷ CACSaaS efficiency
Ending-month NRR uses the effective churn rate for that month. Magic Number compares ending ARR with ending ARR three months earlier, then divides the gain by paid spend plus Sales & Marketing Overhead across those latest three months.
NRR = 1 + expansion − downgrade − churn
Magic Number = 3-month ARR gain ÷ latest 3 months of S&M spendChannel attribution
Open any Monthly Forecast row to trace the parent total across baseline and launched channels. Each channel retains its own cumulative customer and MRR cohort under the same logo churn, revenue churn, expansion, and downgrade assumptions.
category total = sum of channel cohorts
parent month = baseline cohort + all category totalsRecommended workflow
- Name the model and export a clean Baseline assumption set.
- Set each channel’s Live month; use 0 for channels outside the plan.
- Make paid allocations total 100% and enter CPC or CPM/CTR expectations.
- Expand channels only when their conversion or ARPU differs from Baseline.
- Compare ending MRR, payback, blended CAC, and expected LTV:CAC.
- Open a Monthly Forecast row to reconcile baseline and channel cohorts.
- Export the assumptions JSON and seven-file forecast CSV bundle for review.
MRR and ARR trajectory
Realized recurring revenue from the opening baseline
Revenue bridge
Monthly MRR movement
Customer growth
Logos, signups, and new customers
Monthly forecast
Click a month to reconcile the forecast across baseline and active acquisition channels.
| Month | Visitors | Signups | New customers | Total customers | ARPU | Ending MRR | Ending ARR | Max CAC | Max cost/signup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — |